Wednesday, March 26, 2008

Obama responds, part 2 - from Sekhar

The more widely viewed version of the speech on YouTube is the CNN feed with the annoying junk at the bottom of the screen. Now, there is a better link for Obama's speech. The original footage complete with intro etc is at C-SPAN. But this requires RealPlayer or some other program that can play the .rm filetype.

Obama had a post-speech interview with Nightline.

The Chicago Tribune has a pre-controversy profile of Jeremiah Wright.

The Daily Kos has a compilation of editorial and other reactions.

At Salon, Glen Greenwald thinks Americans might not be ready to discuss things like adults, and a responder thinks that even without adult Americans, the speech might still work. The NY Times has the reaction in Chicago, near Obama's church, a positive news analysis, and an op-ed by Maureen Dowd. The Post has another positive analysis, as well as an article about the many Youtube reactions to Wright's sermons. The LA Times compares Obama's speech to Lincoln's, as well as FDR's and JFK's.

Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Obama responds to race/redbaiting - Sekhar

The big news last week is Obama's pastor Jeremiah Wright's "greatest hits" video compilation by some rightwingers. Obama immediately denounced them and went on every news show, every talk show that would have him (I caught him on Hannity, one of the worst rightwingers on TV/radio). But he didn't just leave it there and hope the issue would die away over the next
month; the next primary is not till April 22. Instead, he delivered a major speech on race today. I don't know how long he worked on this speech. If, indeed, he did it in the last few days, it is a remarkable achievement. People on the left can criticize it. For one thing, he is unwilling to endorse Wright's rational remarks about the link between 9/11 and US policy on Palestine and
about the oppression of Palestinians. But that would be ignoring the realities of US politics. Even before the speech today, there was a panel organized by a Jewish group where Obama was the target; there is a snide report in the Washington Post.

I have not tried to see what left and black critics of Obama have to say about the speech. Let us see. What I have below are some commentaries and reactions, two articles on what people think of Wright, Wright's Audacity speech in 1990, and Obama's speech.

Obama's site has the video as well as the prepared text. I don't know if it is correct, but the Youtube site says there have been over 200,000 views of the speech - that is in seven hours! [update: 1,230,086 in 27 hours]

The Nation on Obama's "teaching moment."
Washington Post blogger likes Obama's speech.
So do the editorial boards of the New York Times and the Boston Globe.
Politico on the audience of the speech.
Press release by the UCC on Obama's church.
Wright's old church defends him.
The text of Wright's "Audacity to Hope" sermon.

The LA Times says the increasing role of web video is affecting the real world.
The New York Times on an interview with an Obama supporter and the supporter's follow-up.

Sekhar: michigan, penna, obama tidbits

http://ap.google.com/article/ALeqM5igrYLRrHG3P6lIbs2E7pSH0bxhvgD8VG1KH81 talks about the problem of a closed primary disenfranchising Michigan voters.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/more_on_imminent_death_of_mich.php quotes Michigan legislators on the death of the revote.
http://marcambinder.theatlantic.com/archives/2008/03/michigan_primary_trouble_the_f.php talks about a law passed by Republicans in Michigan to make it harder for first-time voters.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0308/9070.html points out demographic and economic differences between Pennsylvania and Ohio
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=washingtonstory&sid=aomovfB7iaZ8 has anecdotes about black corporate leaders not giving to Obama.
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/2008/03/obama_tells_vets_no_lower_drin.php has an account of Obama's talking with veterans on MTV.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

What Can Clinton Win?

Hopefully, previous posts have shown pretty conclusively that Clinton cannot hope to win the total delegate count, with or without Florida and Michigan. She also can't win more states than Obama. Of the standard measures, that leaves popular vote. But Max Fletcher has a very convincing analysis that shows Clinton really has no hope of catching Obama in that either. Note that that analysis is pre-Mississippi, and actually underestimates Obama's victory by 50,000 votes.

So Clinton will be down in states, delegates, and votes. How, exactly, is she supposed to win the nomination?

Thursday, March 13, 2008

Protesters in Berkeley

I just can't help myself...



Sometimes, this city makes me crazy.

Wednesday, March 12, 2008

From Sekhar again

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/larry-david/on-the-red-phone_b_90338.html
is for amusement.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=cu_wCrisIJY is a remix for Obama.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/ryan-j-davis/barack-obama-the-musical_b_91150.html
gives the background to the music video.

The Clinton camp is trying to poison the electoral process big time by having one of Hillary's advisers/fundraisers (now resigned) play the race card. The rationale for all this is that the Republicans are going to do it anyway, so why not Clinton? But it is also a way to appeal to conservative white men. Of course, it may just show frustration that Obama is able to appeal to whites at all.

There is also the curious darkening and widening of Obama's image in a Clinton ad. By itself, it is a little screw-up, but along with Ferraro's "lucky to be a black man" riff, may be something more.

Then there is the new phenomenon of Republicans voting for Clinton in the Democratic primaries. She won big among Mississippi whites partly because of the cross-voting (her 80:20 white vote becomes 70:30 or less without the Republicans), and this apparently helped her quite a bit in the delegate count: Because the Democrats assign most delegates by Congressional district (or something similar in other states), if a district has 4 delegates (typical), they are split 2-2 between Clinton and Obama unless one wins more than 62.5% (half-way between 50% and
75%) and gets 3 of the 4. In quite a few districts, Obama would probably have got that without the Republican cross-over. This cross-over is quite different from earlier states where many Republicans and Independents voted in the Democratic primaries because they actually liked Obama. This time, the exit polls show that the Republicans who voted for Clinton have a low opinion of her.

There is also the Clinton experience claim, which is being debunked.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/03/11/obama-camp-clinton-forei_n_90894.html has a former State Department official's assessment of Clinton's involvement in foreign policy.
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/homepage/story/30048.html has a summary of Clinton's experience claims, with debunking.
http://blog.washingtonpost.com/sleuth/2008/03/sinbad_unloads_on_hillary_clin.html has Sinbad's recollection of his time in Bosnia with Clinton.

http://www.236.com/blog/w/election08/hillary_clintons_press_team_we_5056.php has a video by the "Clinton campaign" about Obama's race.
http://journals.democraticunderground.com/berni_mccoy/249 is about the darkening story.

http://www.dailybreeze.com/lifeandculture/ci_8489268
http://www.dailybreeze.com/ci_8533832
have links to Ferraro's comments. About one of them:

"Sexism is a bigger problem," Ferraro argued. "It's OK to be sexist in some people's minds. It's not OK to be racist."

This comment is factually incorrect; one just has to count the number female vs black senators, representatives, governors, etc., etc.
postscript: Ferraro has stepped down from the Clinton campaign, perhaps freeing her to play the race card even more.
http://www.prospect.org/csnc/blogs/ezraklein_archive?month=03&year=2008&base_name=what_if_1 dissects the counterfactual issue of Ferraro's claim.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/rj-eskow/geraldine-ferraros-ugly-_b_91075.html attacks Ferraro and the Clinton campaign for her comments.
http://www.ohiodailyblog.com/content/kickin-tires-electoral-auto-mall is a parable about the election, with some race thrown in.
http://www.jedreport.com/2008/03/hrc-website-pus.html attacks the Clinton tactic of disparaging Obama's supporters using race and class.

http://www.jedreport.com/2008/03/republicans-now.html is about Republicans in Democratic primaries.

Tuesday, March 11, 2008

Does it matter?

After the 3am advert, the VP innuendo, and the Sun-Times calling on Obama to "join Hillary in the gutter," the hot question amongst the talking heads seems to be: are Obama and Clinton tearing each other apart and thus paving the way for McCain in November?

No matter what the polls say remember what has happened so far in the primary:

Popular Vote (inc. FL & MI)
McCain: 7,453,596
Clinton: 13,721,977
Obama: 13,745,541

Note that following Super-duper-ultra-fantastic-yet-still-disappointing Tuesday, McCain has been the favorite to receive the nomination. Yet with such disappointing GOP turnout, clear apathy towards McCain amongst much of the evangelical base, and the leading purple state/conservatively vetted VP candidate spending too much time at the Green Iguana, McCain's got lots to worry about this Fall.

Update 3/13 - New Wall Street Journal/NBC poll finds that voters overwhelming prefer a Democrat to be elected president over a Republican by a margin of 50% to 37%. Although when asked for either candidate against McCain, both candidates show a statistical tie, this early result is a good indication that the Dems are in good shape when a candidate is finally chosen.