Pennsylvania Poll Numbers

I don't have high hopes for Obama in Pennsylvania -- maybe he can do it, but it looks like the odds are against him. One thing to note, though, is that the poll numbers right now can't be trusted too much. For instance, Survey USA's latest result, showing Clinton up by 19, says that blacks favor Obama by 3 to 1 -- in other words, 25% Clinton, 75% Obama (it's actually 22/76). But looking at all the past states, there's no way that holds. Clinton is polling George W. Bush-like numbers among blacks -- in Wisconsin, for instance, she got an amazing 8%. In Ohio, she got 13%, in New Jersey 14% (New York is her exception, 37%). Who knows whether Clinton's white support will move. But her black support will almost certainly desert her. Since blacks make up about 15% of the electorate, a 10 point swing inside that doesn't mean much overall, but it's something to keep in mind.