Saturday, March 8, 2008

What Clinton Needs

With the Wyoming results looking like a net pickup of 2 for Obama, he is about 156 delegates up. There are a total of 599 pledged delegates yet to be determined. Let's throw in Florida and Michigan, for 912 total. For Clinton to make up the delegate lead entirely, she'll need to win 912/2+156 = 612 delegates, or 67% -- pretty much impossible. She could plausibly get within 100 of Obama -- 56% is what she needs. Mississippi on Tuesday won't change these numbers much. Of course, if Florida and/or Michigan stay out, her task becomes much harder -- 60% of the vote just to get within 100 of Obama, and an unreal 76% to get even. Note that, while these are delegate percentages, voting percentages have pretty accurately predicted delegate percentages.

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