Definitely not 2,209

Clinton's camp has started hitting the 2209 number (of necessary delegates) harder, as it becomes obvious to everyone that she can't make 2024.5 (she couldn't even before IN and NC, but whatever). But where does this 2209 (actually 2208.5) come from? It assumes that FL and MI delegates -- pledged and super -- will be seated in full force by the Rules and Bylaws Committee (RBC), or after some appeal. But there is absolutely no reason for that to be the case. The Delegate Selection Rules say that states that have their primaries too early are penalized 1/2 their delegates. The rules also say that the RBC can impose harsher punishments, which is what happened in this case. The RBC may lift the punishment, assuming they find that the state party made every effort to hold the primary on the proper day, but they specifically found that not to be the case earlier. Thus, the only easy way for the RBC to help Clinton is to do the minimum of the rules' sanctions -- loss of half the delegates. Moreover, the rule in question (20.C.1.a) states that all superdelegates from that state lose their votes. If that's the case, then we're just adding 93 delegates from Florida and 64 from Michigan, for an additional 157 delegates. On top of the 4048 that we have now, that makes 4205, of which "more than half" is 2103, not 2209.