Numbers are quoted here and there on the percent of each candidate's supporters who will support the other candidate. But these numbers are wrong in a crucial way. For Clinton's supporters to imagine her losing via pledged delegates doesn't take much -- the steady trickle of superdelegates continues. to both sides, and at some point Obama passes 2025, probably in mid-June. The Obama superdelegates can argue that all they did was ratify the pledged-delegate lead. But to really find out what Obama supporters will do, you need to ask them, "Would you support Hillary Clinton if she won the nomination in a floor fight at the convention after finishing behind in pledged delegates?" I think the numbers will change then.
Black groups are already warning that this would be unacceptable -- Sam Stein at Huffington says that a group called Color of Change is starting a petition to tell superdelegates not to deny Obama the nomination, and McClatchy has an article about black voters staying home if Obama doesn't get the nomination. We'll see whether everyone finds it unacceptable.
The way, of course, that people make it "unacceptable" that Obama loses is by turning on their elected politicians who didn't help. Now, Clinton needs those elected politicians -- she needs basically every DNC member who hasn't declared just to draw even, and so she has to hold on to her congressmen, governors, etc. Will superdelegates who represent populations that went 65-35 for Obama really be willing to stand up to that? Maybe Charles Rangel, but he's somewhat unique.
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