June 15th is too late

Who can say how reliable this is (not very), but the Huffington Post has an interview with an unnamed Clinton adviser who says the nominee will be chosen by June 15th. There's no reason to believe them. Obama is going to have a majority of the pledged delegates on May 20th. If the FL/MI delegates are seated at half-strength, Obama will pick up 33 delegates from FL, and Clinton 89 from FL and MI (I'm not counting any MI uncommitteds as Obama). That cuts his lead to about 105. That means Clinton has to win around 2/3 of the remaining pledged delegates to catch up -- still impossible. In fact, after May 20, Obama has a pretty good chance of having an insurmountable lead even counting FL and MI -- there are 86 pledged delegates remaining at that point, and so long as Obama has lost fewer than 20 from KY, WV, and OR, he still mathematically wins. It'll be close -- KY and WV are going to be huge for Clinton, and she could easily run up 25 delegates in those states, and it's unlikely that Obama will get 5 in OR. But this is not looking like a good week for Clinton. If he can hold her to within 5 delegates in WV, he can make the case on May 20th that, even if you count FL and MI at half-strength, same as the Republicans did, there's no way she can win. All of which is to say, that June 15th is silly, even if the superdelegates let it go on that long, and there's no reason they should. It's just the Clinton campaign buying time.