Is McCain really even with Obama?

The Times has a piece on McCain's slow progress in campaigning. Mentioned as a positive is that, despite a highly-damaged Republican brand, McCain is running even with Obama in national polls. But how much is going to change once Hillary drops out and her supporters are really, truly convinced that she's gone? How many of her supporters are going to (maybe grudgingly) accept Obama? Once Obama gets nominated, he's the Democratic candidate, not a Democratic candidate. My guess is a 5-point boost, at least -- and we're seeing some of that already in the more recent polls.