Bloomberg is wrong, but Clinton still needs help

Zach noted a Bloomberg article about the impossibility of Clinton catching Obama. But it makes the silly, silly mistake of assuming that around 1 million people will vote in Puerto Rico, because that's how many voters in the last election were "Democratic-leaning." Poppycock. It's an open primary. Neither PR party is "Democratic" or "Republican." And, just in case people forget, 2 million people voted in 2004. I would be willing to bet a fair amount of money that 2 million people vote in PR, unless the race is completely over by then. Maybe even in that case. Imagine if you never got to vote for President, and then, all of a sudden, you did, and it would decide everything.

To do this number-crunching, there's no need for a Bloomberg article -- just go to Jay Cost's calculator at realclearpolitics. You can see that, if Pennsylvania gets 2 million voters today, and they go for Clinton by 15%, and she wins by 20 in PR, and everything else breaks her way, she could conceivably pass Obama if you don't count caucus estimates.

This will all be settled tonight, though, probably. If Clinton doesn't beat Obama by about 300,000 votes, her popular vote hopes are toast. In other words, Clinton needs not a 10-point victory, but a 15-point victory and record turnout. Anything else, and she's done. And note that high turnout might well favor Obama, since it will likely mean that the new Democrats (who disproportionately back Obama) are making an impact.