Wednesday, April 23, 2008

PA primary analysis - from Sekhar

Obama did not do as well as his supporters hoped for, but better than in early polls, whatever that means. Clearly, Clinton has a solid base, especially among non-college-educated whites. She got 64% of high school graduates, who made up 23% of the electorate. Blacks made up 13% of the electorate. If two-thirds of them are high school graduates and Obama got 90% of their vote, it doesn't leave too many votes for him in the white high school graduates. Questionnaire results from the NY Times.

The net effect on delegate count is pretty small - Clinton got 84 delegates and Obama 74. Two weeks from now are North Carolina and Indiana.

Andrew Sullivan points out that white women are still the Clinton stronghold. Matthew Yglesias takes issue with the claim that Obama can't expand his coalition, and also points out that NC matters. Sullivan quotes Dick Morris on how the structure of PA favored Clinton. Daily Kos has a "letter" to Obama surrogates urging them to attack the concept of the popular vote being important. Sullivan mentions this New Republic piece on Plouffe, Obama's campaign manager -- his delegate predictions from February have been dead on. Tom Hayden wants to know why Clinton is disowning her roots.

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