With the results still settling, it looks like Clinton will have picked up an inconsequential 12 delegates from PA, as well as a bit under 200k in the popular vote. Note that NC alone is going to undo both of those gains.
Going by the pollster.com averages for all the remaining states (which are almost certainly going to tighten -- in Kentucky, she's ahead by 32%, which is way too high a lead for anyone not named Barbaro), and the turnout averages for the states so far, she ends up down about 200k at the finish without counting caucus estimates, Michigan, or Florida. Including caucus estimates and Florida, it's a squeaker -- Obama may be up 20k, or maybe he's down a few hundred votes. This assumes she wins PR by 13%, that the turnout in PR is 2 million, as it was in 2004 for the governor's race, that she wins Oregon, etc.
As the polls tighten, her ending deficit will go up and up. Basically, she's in the same position as before in terms of what she needs to win, but now even blowouts aren't enough to carry her over the top without Florida. We'll see whether Dems buy the argument that the popular vote in Florida should count, even if the delegates don't.
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2 comments:
what you are leaving out of these posts is the all important fuzzy factor, ie. everything besides the math.
the numbers are important, but so is the opinion of the nation, the press, and potentially the super delegates.
the primary races are heavily influenced by the media (especially our dear friends Fox, CNN, and other ‘news’ sources). if obama is painted as too much an elitists who cannot capture the working class vote, not only could our nominee come out quite tainted and unable to unite the party and take the country, but we could potentially see more disparate wins in the remaining states which may put some power back in the hands of the super delegates (for their vote and how they want to deal with FL and MI)
so while a meticulous discussion of the numbers and rules is critically important, evaluating the emotional factor must be a part of the discussion as well.
the numbers are simply not enough
What Jessica says certainly has some truth to it, but at some point it doesn't matter. Just to turn it around, suppose that Michigan and Florida had not been disqualified, that Clinton had romped home in them, and that she now had 2025 delegates. Would the fact that her negatives are extremely high, that Bill keeps going off the rails, etc., change anything? No -- barring a total collapse, the superdelegates are not going to overturn a pledged delegate lead. And the poll numbers I used are pretty much the most generous to Clinton that you can find. I would be willing to bet that the margin of victory for Clinton is less than the poll in every single state. At some point, and that point is now, the numbers are enough. Unless Obama turns out to be a baby-eating alien.
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