Credentials Committee counting

Clinton says she wants to fight on to the credentials committee decision on whether to seat Florida and/or Michigan. But would it be friendly to her at all? Nope. The credentials committee will be as pro-Obama as the convention delegates:

The rules of the DNC say (VII.C, page 10, page 18 of pdf) that membership on the Credentials Committee is proportional to statewide preference, with delegates given in Appendix D. I've made a spreadsheet with the results. So far, it's 67.5 for Obama, and 52.25 for Clinton (the territories get .25 votes each). One would expect him to hold this lead pretty much unchanged. He may lose 1 in Indiana (3 delegates), 1 in West Virginia (1 delegate), and maybe 2 in Pennsylvania (7 delegates), but he'll probably pick up in South Dakota and Montana (1 each). So look for Obama to be up by at least 12 in state-picked delegates, out of a total 183.

Mark Ambinder has a list of credentials committee members selected by Dean, and thinks they're mostly Dean loyalists. Thus, assuming Clinton doesn't get a 19-6 split in Dean's people (very unlikely), she will have a minority of the credentials committee, and will not be able to pass any proposal to seat Florida and/or Michigan delegates.

As Greg Sargent says, 20% of the committee can force a full convention vote, but that would probably cause havoc. Clinton would need a straight up/down majority to win, and you'd imagine the uncommitted superdelegates would take the easy way out and abstain.