A blogger at realclearpolitics has an argument that Clinton has a reasonable chance of winning the popular vote. He has lots of fancy maps and arguments about the Appalachians, but that's actually mostly irrelevant. The main issue he points out is that Puerto Rico has extraordinarily high voter turnout (close to 2 million last election, with a total population of 4 million -- over 80% of registered voters participated).
Of course, it doesn't matter how many people vote if they don't vote for Clinton, and there's the rub. Basically, Clinton will need to pick up on the order of 400,000 votes (at least) from Puerto Rico. Even out of 2 million voters, that's a tall order -- 60/40 split. Can she do it? It's all just guessing until polls start coming out of there. But if they do, and they show Clinton with a 20+ point lead, then she does indeed have a shot of winning the popular vote nationwide, even without Florida and Michigan.
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment